This originated as part of a Facebook exchange, so the writing (especially the transitions) might come across as a tad choppy. My apologies in advance.
CORRECTION: I wrote, in the beginning of bullet two, “Given this historical trajectory, it’s very hard to consider any 20th-century president — excepting (maybe) Taft, Harding, Coolidge, or Hoover — as to the ‘right’ of President Obama.” What I meant to write was, “Given this historical trajectory, it’s very hard to consider any pre-Reagan 20th-century president — excepting (maybe) Taft, Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, or Carter — as to the ‘right’ of President Obama.” I’ve corrected accordingly below.
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CLAIM:
President Obama is….
(a) right-of-center in relation to 20th-century presidential history,
(b) centrist in relation to our present-day congress, and
(c) right-of-center in relation to contemporary public opinion.
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ARGUMENT:
1. I’m a historian (in training). I think about things historically. From a historical perspective, it’s difficult to consider President Obama as anything other than right-of-center, especially concerning economic and social policy. The reason for this is that the country as a whole – both with regards to policy and public opinion – has moved to the right in recent decades. Among professional historians, especially among economic and social historians, this amounts to a consensus viewpoint. The shift is sometimes suggested by the phrases “The Reagan Revolution,” “The Neoliberal Moment,” “The Rise of the New Right,” “The Conservative Revolution,” etc. I’ve written previously about why this change took place, and what policy and public opinion looked like pre-1970s. If you’re interested, see this, this, this, this, or this.
2. Given this historical trajectory, it’s very hard to consider any pre-Reagan 20th-century president — excepting (maybe) Taft, Harding, Coolidge, Hoover, or Carter — as to the “right” of President Obama. If you were to construct a chart with all the presidents running vertical and all their policies or policy preferences running horizontal, and you were to insert a number (1 to 10) in each box based on how “right” each president was on each issue (10 being “most right”), Obama would probably end up with an average of 6 (maybe even 7).
Granted – on cultural policy (gay marriage, abortion, etc.) this isn’t so, although even in some of these boxes you’d find yourself surprised, especially on gun regulations. And on foreign policy, Obama would probably clock in somewhere about the center. But once you factor in economic and social policy, both of which constitute the greater part of the federal policy toolkit, you’d find him well to the right of Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, and Ford, not to mention all the pre-Reagan Democrats… save perhaps Carter, whose social and economic policy was more right-wing than most people realize.
I should probably note that I’m using the terms “right” and “left” conventionally — that is, I’m referring to what most Americans now consider “left” or “right.” So if you were to take Nixon’s or Eisenhower’s preferences and policies concerning labor rights and unions, financial and industrial regulation, nationalization, progressive taxation, corporate taxation, public works projects, infrastructure, education policy, healthcare policy*, rent controls, price ceilings, urban planning, public housing, central planning, capital controls, fair trade, monetary policy, or overall fiscal spending (especially social spending, and especially as it pertains to the business cycle and liquidity), you’d find that they’d amount to flaming “left-wingers” today.
(*Yes, even healthcare policy: http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/stories/2009/september/03/nixon-proposal.aspx .)
3. This is hardly a viewpoint constrained within the halls of academia.
(a) Here’s Bruce Bartlett, one of the more reputable policy advisors under Reagan (and treasury official under George H.W. Bush*), making the same case. Nota bene:
Soon, a large number of prominent Republicans and conservative intellectuals were publicly endorsing Obama. Following is a short list:
Ken Duberstein, Ronald Reagan’s White House chief of staff;
Charles Fried, Reagan’s Solicitor General;Ken Adelman, director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency for Reagan;
Colin Powell, Secretary of State under George W. Bush;
Scott McClellan, Bush’s press secretary;
And Jeffrey Hart, former senior editor at National Review magazine and speechwriter for Reagan and Richard Nixon;
Radio talker Rush Limbaugh was so alarmed by conservative defections to Obama that he read the riot act to his “ditto heads.” He said it was “maddening” that Obama “is moving right” and sounding as conservative on many things as McCain. To counter these inroads among conservatives, Limbaugh handed down his marching orders: “We have to portray this guy as inexperienced, far leftist, despite what he’s saying about moving to the center.”
According to exit polls, Obama ended up with 20 percent of the conservative vote in 2008.
(*In this clip you’ll learn that even Reagan’s and George H.W. Bush’s tax policies – especially their corporate tax policies – were to the left of Obama’s.)
(b) Here’s Leon Hadar, a prominent libertarian, making a similar argument.
(c) Here’s William Saletan, a moderate Republican for the majority of his career, saying the same thing.
(d) Here’s Andrew Sullivan on the same riff.
(e) Here’s Steven L. Taylor, who edits and writes for the “classical liberal,” right-of-center website Outside the Beltway, following suit.
(f) Here’s the venue for corporate conservatives — Forbes Magazine — playing a related tune.
(g) Even Rush Limbaugh seems to have a clue of where the Center-Right stands (at least historically):
A Republican moderate doesn’t talk about reducing the size of government, doesn’t talk about reducing spending. They just say they’re smarter and better at it, and they won’t go into debt as fast, but the conservatives are the problem.
(h) And then there are the more usual (liberal) suspects, too.
4. OK, so that’s my case why I think Obama is — historically speaking — a right-of-center president. I think the case is strong, and I suspect most historians would agree with me, specifically biographers of (conventionally understood) right-of-center presidents like Eisenhower and Nixon.
Now…
There’s also the question of how Obama stacks up with contemporary policies and policy preferences among fellow politicians, not to mention how he stacks up among present-day public opinion. This involves a more complicated answer, although I still think Obama falls right-of-center.
5. As I’ve noted, public opinion today is far more right-wing than it was pre-1970s. (In fact, it’s more right-wing than it was in the ’80s and ’90s.) So how is Obama positioned in this (already historically right-wing) discourse in relation to Congress?
Thankfully, a pair of political scientists have already endured the heavy lifting for us. They’ve looked at “presidential support votes” – roll call votes that the president has either publicly backed or opposed. Turns out, if you’re looking at how a president’s policy preferences compare to the policy preferences on the hill, Obama proves the most moderate post-1945 president. For the bulk of his term in the oval office, he’s situated himself in the middle of the overarching congressional policy debate.
(6. In case you’re wondering, this doesn’t mean Obama is a centrist president as opposed to a center-right president in relation to history. This is because “presidential support votes” only measure how each president fits into a contemporary puzzle, not a historical one. You can read more about the difference here.)
7. If you’ve made it this far, and you’ve followed the links somewhat closely, you might say,
Fine, so maybe the president is to the right of most 20th-century presidents, including Ike and Nixon. But you also just said he’s a centrist relative to Congress. So which is it? Is he right-of-center or just center?
You might also ask,
And what about public opinion? How does Obama’s policy preferences and policies compare to public opinion?”
Good questions. Again, President Obama is…
(a) right-of-center in relation to 20th-century presidential history,
(b) centrist in relation to our present-day Congress, and
(c) right-of-center in relation to contemporary public opinion.
8. The first thing to understand is that politicians tend to overestimate the conservatism of their constituents. A recent paper, which has received a lot of hype in the political science and political journalism world, quantifies this trend. The result is a political establishment that votes to the right of their constituents, in both parties.
9. The second thing to understand is that money talks in Washington, even if public opinion is saying something else. This becomes clear when you compare opinion polling and policy outcomes on a number of hot button issues, like progressive taxation, closing up corporate loopholes, the capital gains tax, the estate tax, free trade policy, financial regulations, trust-busting, environmental regulations, labor rights, education and infrastructure spending, etc.
10. The third thing to understand is that when Americans are asked vague or politically-charged questions, they often provide answers that contradict their responses to more specific policy queries. For example, I’m sure you’ve heard about the sizable discrepancy in polling when Americans are asked about “Obamacare” versus “The Affordable Care Act.” The same discrepancy holds when Americans are asked about individual aspects of the bill. And a similar dynamic works across the gamut.
When americans are asked if they’re conservative, liberal, or moderate, a plurality chooses “conservative” and a majority chooses “conservative” or “moderate.” Likewise, when Americans are asked about the view of government – namely, is it too big or too small – the participants often lean in the favor of a desire for smaller government. However, if polls ask specific questions about specific policies, then those surveyed often lean in the favor of bigger government.
11. The fourth thing to understand is the deviation in opinion from year-to-year. As any political scientist or polling expert would tell you, when the president is a Republican, public opinion tends to move leftward, and when the president is a Democrat, public opinion tends to move rightward. What’s extraordinary about the present moment is that, even though we’re currently enduring one of the most polarizing (but moderate!) presidencies in American history, and even though the president is a Democrat, public opinion – on a policy-by-policy basis – is still left of the president’s policies and preferences, and it’s still left of Congress.
11. And the fifth (and final) thing to understand is the influence of corporate media and corporate think tanks.
12. Given all this, it might be quite shocking to learn that, as a whole, public opinion still manages to be to the “left” (conventionally understood) of congressional and presidential policies and policy preferences when the American people are asked specifics about said policy. Here’s the breakdown:
(a) For an overview on the public opinion-policy gap concerning the role of government, see this, this, this, this, and this.
(b) For an overview on the public opinion-policy gap concerning social and economic policy, see this, this, this, this, and this.
(c) For an overview on the public opinion-policy gap concerning foreign policy, see this.
(d) For an overview on the public opinion-policy gap concerning cultural questions, see this and this.
(e) For an overview on the public opinion-policy gap concerning the environment, see this , this , this , this , and this.
(f) And for an overview on the public opinion-policy gap concerning crime and the criminal justice system, see this and this.
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So one more time, just for kicks:
President Obama is…
(a) right-of-center in relation to 20th-century presidential history,
(b) centrist in relation to our present-day congress, and
(c) right-of-center in relation to contemporary public opinion.
